On Sunday night, the game between the Broncos and Chiefs is more than just a battle for first place in the AFC West. It’s a battle for competitiveness. It’s a chance for the Broncos to show that the last five years – when Kansas City has won every single division title – is over.
It’s a chance for Denver to stop being inferior to the Chiefs – Kansas City has won 11 straight against the Broncos – and prove that they are their equals.
Denver Broncos
This game will mean a lot to the Broncos if they win. It will represent a complete change of attitude and give the franchise its biggest win since Super Bowl 50. But if Denver loses, would it mean the opposite? Would it be a back-breaker?
The simple answer to that is no. Teddy Bridgewater has been very good at quarterback, and he’d like to be the starter with the Broncos next season. But most Broncos fans have looked at him as a place-holder. The team won’t say it, but they’ve also looked at Bridgewater as a temporary quarterback fix and not the quarterback of the future.
This is a team that traded away Von Miller a month ago, which was also a signal that it wasn’t trying to compete for a championship in 2021.
All of that leads to a win over Kansas City being gravy (albeit very tasty gravy), but not a necessity. Although we don’t want to short-sell what a win would mean to a team and fanbase that hasn’t had much to cheer about for six years.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
The Chiefs are dead and buried, Patrick Mahomes has been figured out, and Andy Reid’s offense is no longer effective.
Or so we were told a month ago.
Kansas City is now back in the first place, and they will remain there if they win on Sunday. The Chiefs have won four straight, including a blowout win over the Raiders and a dominating defensive performance against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys – something the Broncos also know about.
Patrick Mahomes, for his struggles, is still top-five in the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. For the low scores the Chiefs have posted, they are still fourth in the AFC in points scored, and they lead the AFC West in scoring. For all the talk of Mahomes’ interceptions, he still has a lower interception rate than Kyler Murray.
This is still a very good team, and as crazy as it’s been in the AFC in terms of who is in line for the top seed in the playoffs, no one would be surprised to see the Chiefs on top come January.
Betting Picks
Broncos (+9.5)
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Broncos actually win in Kansas City. The Chiefs have won 11 straight against Denver overall, and Patrick Mahomes is 7-0 against the Broncos, including 3-0 at Arrowhead Stadium.
In those three games, Mahomes has thrown for 303 yards, 340 yards, and 303 yards, and he’s thrown seven touchdowns.
But, and this is important, the Chiefs don’t cover spreads. They didn’t cover in their win over Denver at Arrowhead last season. They’ve only coved four times this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have covered six times.
Take the Broncos and the points.
Under 47.5
This head-to-head series has gone under in four of the last five games, and this year the Chiefs have gone under in five of the last six games. The Broncos have gone under in their last five games.
Two defenses playing good football means there will be yet another under Sunday night.