When this game first showed up on the schedule, it was supposed to be a Ravens win over a third or fourth place Broncos team.
Things have changed in the last three weeks.
Baltimore Ravens (+1.5)
The Ravens are 2-1 and still on track for an AFC North division title. But the margins of success in Baltimore are incredibly thin. They beat the Chiefs because of a last-minute fumble and got a win on Sunday in Detroit by mere inches on a 66-yard game-winning field goal by Justin Tucker.
Although, to be fair, the margin for the lone loss, overtime at Las Vegas, was also just as thin. This team could be 3-0 or 0-3.
So far, the mass injuries they suffered to the running back room haven’t cost them yet. It’s curious to see if they can continue to squeak by with that obvious handicap to what had been their greatest team strength.
Denver Broncos (-1.5)
The margins in Denver have not been slim. The Broncos won by 14 in Week 1, 10 in Week 2, and 26 in Week 3. That 50-point differential on the season is tied for the most in the NFL. The 26 points allowed is the best in the NFL.
The Broncos have had a very kind schedule. The three teams they’ve beaten are a combined 0-9 and have lost by an average score of 26-14. So we’re not exactly sure how good the Broncos really are. However, we do know that Teddy Bridgewater has been a revelation this season. For the first time in his career, he’s recorded three straight quarterback ratings of over 100. For the first time since 2015, he’s gone three straight starts without an interception.
The Broncos’ defense has been as good as advertised, ranking first in points allowed and second in yards. Their five forced turnovers are ranked in the top-10.
With each passing week, this team looks more and more legitimate.
Betting Pick
Broncos (-1.5)
Things are clicking on all cylinders for the Broncos. The pass rush is back, with five more sacks recorded against the Jets. The secondary is one of the best in the league, with four interceptions in three weeks and an NFL-lowest opponent passer rating of 57.8.
Complimenting that defense is an offensive passer rating of 116.4, which is fourth in the NFL. In 2020 the Broncos ranked 32nd. This is also the first 3-0 start for Denver since 2016.
The Ravens are a far more challenging opponent than the previous three, but Denver still wins in the end by a field goal.
Bet the Broncos and give the points.
Under (45 points)
Even as the Broncos have dominated, they haven’t lit up the scoreboard. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ offense is showing an inability to get into the endzone, which will only be more obvious against the Broncos. At Detroit, the Ravens scored one touchdown and kicked four field goals. Expect more of the same at Empower Field on Sunday.
Take the under.